Why campaigns need a theory of change
Launch library · evergreen read
A theory of change sets out the assumed path from activity to outcome, naming what the campaign will do, what shift that is expected to produce, and how that shift is expected to lead eventually to the change being sought. Writing it down early gives measurement something concrete to test against later. It also gives everyone on a team a shared reference for what the campaign is actually trying to achieve.
Without this clarity, measurement tends to default to counting whatever is easiest, such as attendance or shares, regardless of whether those figures actually relate to the change the campaign is trying to produce, which risks confusing busy activity with genuine, meaningful progress toward the actual goal. A campaign can look impressively active while making almost no headway on what actually matters.
Revisiting the theory of change as a campaign unfolds, checking whether the assumed links are actually holding up in practice, turns measurement into a genuine learning tool rather than a box ticking exercise carried out mainly to justify what has already been done regardless of its effect. That habit of checking keeps a campaign honest with itself as circumstances evolve.