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Measuring change

The difference between outputs and outcomes

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Photo: Bolado brings community together, honored as Airlifter of the Week (5113591) by U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Milton Hamilton (Public domain), via Openverse

Outputs are what a campaign directly produces: events held, materials distributed, meetings attended, volunteers recruited. Outcomes are the changes those outputs are meant to bring about: shifted attitudes, changed behaviour, a policy decision made. Outputs are easier to count, but outcomes are what genuinely matter in the end, however much harder they are to pin down precisely.

A campaign can rack up impressive outputs while producing very little outcome if the underlying theory linking the two turns out to be weak, which is why measurement focused only on outputs can create a misleading, overly comfortable sense of progress that does not survive closer scrutiny once someone asks the harder question.

Good measurement tracks both, using outputs as a useful, more immediate signal of activity while treating outcomes as the real test of whether that activity is producing the change the campaign actually set out to achieve in the first place, however long that takes to show up clearly.

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