How campaigns use a theory of change
Launch library · evergreen read
A theory of change lays out the assumed chain of cause and effect a campaign is relying on: if this activity happens, then this shift in attitude follows, which then makes this decision more likely. Writing it down forces organisers to be explicit about assumptions they might otherwise leave unexamined for the whole life of the campaign.
Making the theory visible also helps a campaign notice when a link in the chain is weak. If an activity is meant to shift public opinion but there is little reason to think it actually reaches the relevant audience, that gap becomes obvious once the logic is laid out plainly rather than left implicit.
A theory of change is not a guarantee, since real change rarely moves in a straight line, but it gives a campaign a shared reference point. When results diverge from expectations, the theory shows organisers exactly where to look for what went differently than planned, rather than guessing at random.